Canadian federal election, 2004

From Wikinfo

Jump to: navigation, search


A Canadian federal election will most likely be held in early 2004.

Canadian voters will elect a new House of Commons (the lower house of Parliament). If the currently governing Liberal Party of Canada wins neither a majority nor a plurality, the Governor General will invite the leader of the party that controls the most seats to form a new government. In the event of a tie, parliamentary tradition states that the party that had more seats in the last sitting will form government.

All four of the five major parties will run under different leaders in this next election than the last, held in 2000. This election will also mark the debut of the new Conservative Party of Canada.

Most pundits are predicting that new Prime Minister Paul Martin will lead the Liberals to a fourth majority government, possibly setting a record for number of seats won. Opponents contend that the people of Canada do not yet know much about Martin, and also that the Conservative Party of Canada does not yet have a leader, which is one of the most crucial elements in any party.

Though this election will likely not be suspenseful as to who wins power, it may, however, create interest about which party, if any, can form a credible opposition.

Contents

Opposition parties

In recent months the New Democratic Party of Canada, Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, and Canadian Alliance have been running a distant second, third and fourth in the polls. Many pundits have been predicting that the combination of the popular and fiscally conservative Martin,along with continued vote-splitting on the right, could lead to the almost total annihilation of the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance. This fear has prompted those two parties to form a united Conservative Party of Canada, which was approved by the Canadian Alliance on December 5, 2003 and by the Progressive Conservatives on December 6, 2003.

Prior to the announcement of the union of the right-of-centre parties, many were predicting an NDP official opposition. A new leader, clear social democratic policies, and the possible collapse of the other opposition parties may allow the NDP to make breakthroughs in all the regions of the country.

While many predicted that the election of the strongly federalist [[Parti lib�ral du Qu�bec|Quebec Liberal Party]] under Jean Charest would give the [[Bloc Qu�b�cois]] (BQ) new purpose and assure it a place in the next parliament, the party continues to sink in the polls. The continued decline in support for sovereignty, an unpopular leader, the massive popularity of Paul Martin, the renewed presence of the NDP and possibly a united conservative/decentralist party in the province, threatens the official status of the BQ.

Timeline

2004

2003

2002

  • December 9 - The Bloc Qu�b�cois is able to hold on to two seats in by-elections electing Roger Gaudet in Berthier--Montcalm, replacing Michel Bellehumeur, and electing [[S�bastien Gagnon]] in Lac-Saint-Jean--Saguenay, replacing [[St�phane Tremblay]]. Despite winning both elections, these elections were very close, especially since in the 2000 election these seats were won by 15 000 and 14 000 votes respectively.
  • August 21 - Prime Minister Jean Chr�tien tells Canadians he will step down in February, 2004.
  • June 2, 2002- Paul Martin resigns as Finance Minister of Canada. John Manley is named to replace him.
  • May 13 - In seven by-elections across the country, the Liberal Party of Canada was re-elected in two ridings in Quebec, one in Newfoundland and Labrador, and one in Manitoba while they lost one to the NDP in Windsor West, where Brian Masse was elected, and one to the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, when Rex Barnes was elected. The leader of the Canadian Alliance, Stephen Harper won easily in Calgary Southwest replacing out-going former Reform Party of Canada leader Preston Manning.

Upcoming events

Leadership races of 2003 and 2004

Recent poll numbers

  • Last Ekos poll (21/12/03): Liberal 56%, Conservative 25%, NDP 12%, BQ 9%
  • Last Ipsos-Reid poll (14/12/03): Liberal 48%, Conservative 21%, NDP 14%, BQ 9%
  • Last SOM poll (02/12/03): Liberal 58%, NDP 18%, Conservative 13%, BQ 9%
  • Last SES Research poll (14/11/03): Liberal 49%, PC 16%, CA 12%, NDP 12%, BQ 10%
  • Last Compas poll (21/10/03): Liberal 50%, PC 14%, NDP 14%, CA 10%, BQ 9%
  • Last Leger poll (09/06/03): Liberal 55%, PC 14%, CA 12%, NDP 10%, BQ 8%

Source: http://www.canadawebpages.com/pc-polls.asp

2004 federal representation

Due to the 2001 census, Canada's 301 electoral districts will increase to 308. Boundary changes will take effect across the country to even out population redistribution, and seven new districts will be formed. Each province has a minimum amount of seats, and therefore it is rare for a province to lose seats in a redistribution. These changes still need to be passed by the House of Commons (as of December 12, 2003); they are expected to take effect in April 2004.

Current distribution

Party Party Leader Seats Popular Vote
Before After # %
[[Bloc Qu�b�cois]] Gilles Duceppe 33
Canadian Action Party Paul T. Hellyer 0
Communist Party of Canada Miguel Figueroa 0
Conservative Party of Canada John Lynch-Staunton (interim) 72
The Green Party of Canada Jim Harris 0
Liberal Party of Canada Paul Martin 170
Marijuana Party Marc-Boris St-Maurice 0
Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada Sandra L. Smith 0
New Democratic Party Jack Layton 14
Independent 9
No Affiliation 0
Vacant 3 308
301
The parties below have not yet been granted full recognition by Elections Canada
Absolutely Absurd Party Jan Jagiellowicz
Christian Heritage Party Ronald O. Gray
National Alternative Party Gilles Lavoie
The Ontario Party of Canada George E. Burns
The parties below are registered, but do not plan on fielding candidates
Natural Law Party of Canada Allen Faguy
Source: http://www.elections.ca
Other elections: 1988 1993 1997 2000 2004
Canadian federal elections

Seat by seat breakdown

Cabinet Ministers and Party Leaders are denoted in bold

Newfoundland and Labrador Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Avalon new district John Efford may face Rex Barnes
Bonavista--Exploits Rex Barnes Conservative
Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte Gerry Byrne Liberal
Labrador Lawrence O'Brien Liberal
Random--Burin--St. George's Bill Mathews Liberal
St. John's North Norman E. Doyle Conservative
St. John's South Loyola Hearn Conservative
Prince Edward Island Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Cardigan Lawrence MacAulay Liberal
Charlottetown Shawn Murphy Liberal
Egmont Joe McGuire Liberal
Malpeque Wayne Easter Liberal
Nova Scotia Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Cape Breton--Canso Rodger Cuzner Liberal
Central Nova Peter MacKay Conservative
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour Wendy Lill NDP
Halifax Alexa McDonough NDP
Halifax West Geoff Regan Liberal
Kings--Hants Scott Brison Liberal defected from PC Party, Dec/03
North Nova Bill Casey Conservative
Sackville--Eastern Shore Peter Stoffer NDP
South Shore--St. Margaret's Gerald Keddy Conservative
Sydney--Victoria Mark Eyking Liberal
West Nova Robert Thibault Liberal
New Brunswick Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Acadie--Bathurst Yvon Godin NDP
Beaus�jour Dominic LeBlanc Liberal
Fredericton Andy Scott Liberal
Fundy John Herron Ind. PC will not run again for Tories
Madawaska--Restigouche Jeannot Castonguay Liberal
Miramichi Charles Hubbard Liberal
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe Claudette Bradshaw Liberal
St. Croix--Belleisle Greg Thompson Conservative
Saint John Elsie Wayne Conservative
Tobique--Mactaquac Andy Savoy Liberal
Quebec (St. Lawrence Valley) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Beauport new district
Berthier--Maskinong� vacant
Charlesbourg new district
Charlevoix--Montmorency [[G�rard Asselin]] [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord [[Andr� Harvey]] Liberal
Gasp�sie--�les-de-la-Madeleine Georges Farrah Liberal
Joliette Pierre Paquette [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Jonqui�re--Alma new district
L�vis--Bellechasse new district
Lotbini�re--Chutes-de-la-Chaudi�re new district
Louis-H�bert [[H�l�ne Scherrer]] Liberal
Louis-Saint-Laurent Jean Guy Carignan Ind.
Manicouagan Ghislain Fournier [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Matap�dia--Matane Jean-Yves Roy [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Montcalm new district
Portneuf Claude Duplain Liberal
Qu�bec Christiane Gagnon [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Repentigny [[Beno�t Sauvageau]] [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Richelieu Louis Plamondon [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Rimouski--T�miscouata new district
Rivi�re-du-Loup--Montmagny new district
Roberval Michel Gauthier [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Saint-Maurice--Champlain Marcel Gagnon [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Trois-Rivi�res Yves Rocheleau [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Quebec (Eastern Townships & Mont�r�gie) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Beauce Claude Drouin Liberal
Beauharnois--Salaberry Serge Marcil Liberal
Brome--Missisquoi Denis Paradis Liberal
Chambly--Borduas Ghislain Lebel Ind.
Ch�teguay--Saint-Constant [[Robert Lanct�t]] Liberal defected from Bloc, Dec/03
Compton--Stanstead David Price Liberal
Drummond Pauline Picard [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
M�gantic--L'�rable [[G�rard Binet]] Liberal
Richmond--Arthabaska [[Andr� Bachand]] Ind. PC will not run again
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot Yvan Loubier [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Saint-Jean Claude Bachand [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Shefford Diane St-Jacques Liberal
Sherbrooke Serge Cardin [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Vaudreuil-Soulanges Nick Discepola Liberal
Quebec (Montreal, Laval & Longueuil) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Ahuntsic Eleni Bakopanos Liberal
Alfred-Pellan Carole-Marie Allard Liberal
Bourassa Denis Coderre Liberal
Brossard--La Prairie Jacques Saada Liberal
Hochelaga [[R�al M�nard]] [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Honor�-Mercier Yvon Charbonneau Liberal
Jeanne-Le Ber Liza Frulla Liberal
Lac-Saint-Louis Clifford Lincoln Liberal
La Pointe-de-l'�le Francine Lalonde [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
LaSalle--�mard Paul Martin Liberal
Laurier Gilles Duceppe [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Laval new district
Laval--Les �les Raymonde Folco Liberal
Longueuil Caroline St-Hilaire [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Marc-Aur�le-Fortin new district
Mount Royal Irwin Cotler Liberal
Notre-Dame-de-Gr�ce--Lachine Marlene Jennings Liberal
Outremont Martin Cauchon Liberal
Papineau Pierre Pettigrew Liberal
Pierrefonds--Dollard Bernard Patry Liberal
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie Bernard Bigras [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert Pierrette Venne Ind.
Saint-Lambert Yolande Thibeault Liberal
Saint-Laurent--Cartierville [[St�phane Dion]] Liberal
Saint-L�onard--Saint-Michel Massimo Pacetti Liberal
Verch�res--Les-Patriotes [[St�phane Bergeron]] [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Westmount--Ville-Marie Lucienne Robillard Liberal
Quebec (Laurentides, Outaouais & North) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Abitibi--T�miscamingue Gilbert Barrette Liberal
Argenteuil--Mirabel Mario Laframboise [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Gatineau Mark Assad Liberal
Hull--Aylmer Marcel Proulx Liberal
Laurentides--Labelle new district
Nunavik--Eeyou Guy St-Julien Liberal
Pontiac Robert Bertrand Liberal
Rivi�re-des-Mille-�les Gilles-A. Perron [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Rivi�re-du-Nord new district
Terrebonne--Blainville Diane Bourgeois [[Bloc Qu�b�cois|BQ]]
Ontario (Eastern) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Carleton--Lanark Scott Reid Conservative
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell Don Boudria Liberal
Kingston and the Islands Peter Milliken Liberal
Lanark--Frontenac--Lennox and Addington new district
Leeds--Grenville Joe Jordan Liberal
Nepean--Carleton David Pratt Liberal
Ottawa Centre vacant Richard Mahoney (Lib) vs Ed Broadbent (NDP)
Ottawa--Orl�ans [[Eug�ne Bellemare]] Liberal
Ottawa South John Manley Liberal will not run again
Ottawa--Vanier [[Mauril B�langer]] Liberal
Ottawa West--Nepean Marlene Catterall Liberal
Prince Edward--Hastings Lyle Vanclief Liberal will not run again
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke Cheryl Gallant Conservative
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry Bob Kilger Liberal
Ontario (Central) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Barrie Aileen Carroll Liberal
Clarington--Scugog--Uxbridge Alex Shepherd Liberal
Dufferin--Caledon Murray Calder Liberal
Grey--Bruce--Owen Sound Ovid L. Jackson Liberal
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock John O'Reilly Liberal
Newmarket--Aurora new district
Northumberland--Quinte West Paul Harold Macklin Liberal
Peterborough Peter Adams Liberal
Simcoe--Grey Paul Bonwick Liberal
Simcoe North Paul DeVillers Liberal
York--Simcoe Karen Kraft Sloan Liberal
Ontario (Greater Toronto Area) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Ajax--Pickering Dan McTeague Liberal
Beaches--East York Maria Minna Liberal
Bramalea--Gore--Malton Gurbax S. Malhi Liberal
Brampton--Springdale Sarkis Assadourian Liberal
Brampton West Colleen Beaumier Liberal
Davenport Charles Caccia Liberal
Don Valley East David Collenette Liberal
Don Valley West John Godfrey Liberal
Eglinton--Lawrence Joe Volpe Liberal
Etobicoke Centre vacant
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Jean Augustine Liberal
Etobicoke North Roy Cullen Liberal
Markham--Unionville John McCallum Liberal
Mississauga--Brampton South new district
Mississauga East--Cooksville Albina Guarnieri Liberal
Mississauga--Erindale new district
Mississauga South Paul Szabo Liberal
Mississauga--Streetsville Steve Mahoney Liberal
Oak Ridges--Markham new district
Oshawa Ivan Grose Liberal
Parkdale--High Park Sarmite Bulte Liberal
Pickering--Scarborough East new district
Richmond Hill new district
St. Paul's Carolyn Bennett Liberal
Scarborough--Agincourt Jim Karygiannis Liberal
Scarborough Centre John Cannis Liberal
Scarborough--Guildwood new district
Scarborough--Rouge River Derek Lee Liberal
Scarborough Southwest Tom Wappel Liberal
Thornhill Elinor Caplan Liberal
Toronto Centre Bill Graham Liberal
Toronto--Danforth Dennis Mills Liberal will face NDP leader 'Jack Layton
Trinity--Spadina Tony Ianno Liberal May face Olivia Chow
Vaughan new district
Whitby--Oshawa Judi Longfield Liberal
Willowdale Jim Peterson Liberal
York Centre Art Eggleton Liberal
York South--Weston Alan Tonks Liberal
York West Judy Sgro Liberal
Ontario (Hamilton, Halton & Niagara) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale John Bryden Liberal
Burlington Paddy Torsney Liberal
Halton Julian Reed Liberal
Hamilton Centre Stan Keyes Liberal
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek Sheila Copps Liberal Tony Valeri will challenge for nom.
Hamilton Mountain Beth Phinney Liberal
Niagara Falls Gerry Pillitteri Liberal
Niagara West--Glanbrook Tony Valeri Liberal
Oakville M. A. Bonnie Brown Liberal
St. Catharines Walt Lastewka Liberal
Welland new district
Ontario (Southwestern) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Brant Jane Stewart Liberal
Cambridge Janko Peric Liberal
Chatham-Kent--Essex Jerry Pickard Liberal
Elgin--Middlesex--London Gar Knutson Liberal
Essex Susan Whelan Liberal
Guelph Brenda Chamberlain Liberal
Haldimand--Norfolk Bob Speller Liberal
Huron--Bruce Paul Steckle Liberal
Kitchener Centre Karen Redman Liberal
Kitchener--Conestoga new district
Kitchener--Waterloo Andrew Teledgi Liberal
London--Fanshawe Pat O'Brien Liberal
London North Centre Joe Fontana Liberal
London West Sue Barnes Liberal
Middlesex--Kent--Lambton Rose-Marie Ur Liberal
Oxford John Finlay Liberal
Perth--Wellington Gary Schellenberger Conservative
Sarnia--Lambton Roger Gallaway Liberal
Wellington--Halton Hills new district Garth Turner seeking Cons. nom.
Windsor--Tecumseh Joe Comartin NDP
Windsor West Brian Masse NDP
Ontario (Northern) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing Brent St. Denis Liberal
Kenora Bob Nault Liberal
Nickel Belt Raymond Bonin Liberal
Nipissing--Timiskaming Bob Wood Liberal
Parry Sound--Muskoka Andy Mitchell Liberal
Sault Ste. Marie Carmen F. Provenzano Liberal
Sudbury Diane Marleau Liberal
Thunder Bay--Rainy River Stan Dromisky Liberal
Thunder Bay--Superior North Joe Comuzzi Liberal
Timmins--James Bay [[R�ginald B�lair]] Liberal
Manitoba Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Brandon--Souris Rick Borotsik T.B.A. may not join Cons.
Charleswood--St. James John Harvard Liberal
Churchill Bev Desjarlais NDP
Dauphin--Swan River Inky Mark Conservative
Elmwood--Transcona Bill Blaikie NDP
Kildonan--St. Paul Rey Pagtakhan Liberal
Portage--Lisgar Brian Pallister Conservative
Provencher Vic Toews Conservative
Saint Boniface Raymond Simard Liberal
Selkirk--Interlake Howard Hilstrom Conservative
Winnipeg Centre Pat Martin NDP
Winnipeg North Judy Wasylyclia-Leis NDP
Winnipeg South Reg Alcock Liberal
Winnipeg South Centre Anita Neville Liberal
Saskatchewan Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Battlefords--Lloydminster Gerry Ritz Conservative
Blackstrap Lynne Yelich Conservative
Churchill River Rick Laliberte Liberal
Cypress Hills--Grasslands David L. Anderson Conservative
Palliser Dick Proctor NDP
Prince Albert Brian Fitzpatrick Conservative
Regina--Lumsden--Lake Centre Larry Spencer Conservative
Regina--Qu'Appelle Lorne Nystrom NDP
Saskatoon--Humboldt Jim Pankiw Independent
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar Carol Skelton Conservative
Saskatoon--Wanuskewin Maurice Vellacott Conservative
Souris--Moose Mountain Roy H. Bailey Conservative
Wascana Ralph Goodale Liberal
Yorkton--Melville Gary Breitkeuz Conservative
Alberta Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Athabasca Dave Chatters Conservative
Calgary East Deepak Obhrai Conservative
Calgary North Centre new district Jim Prentice seeking Cons. nom.
Calgary Northeast Art Hanger Conservative
Calgary--Nose Hill Diane Ablonczy Conservative
Calgary South Centre Joe Clark Ind. PC will not run again
Calgary Southeast Jason Kenney Conservative
Calgary Southwest Stephen Harper Conservative
Calgary West Rob Anders Conservative
Crowfoot Kevin Sorenson Conservative
Edmonton--Beaumont David Kilgour Liberal
Edmonton Centre new district Anne McLellan likely to run here
Edmonton East Peter Goldring Conservative
Edmonton--Leduc new district
Edmonton--St. Albert new district
Edmonton--Sherwood Park new district
Edmonton--Spruce Grove new district
Edmonton--Strathcona Rahim Jaffer Conservative
Lethbridge Rick Casson Conservative Ken Nicol will seek Lib. nom.
Macleod Grant Hill Conservative will not run again
Medicine Hat Monte Solberg Conservative
Peace River Charlie Penson Conservative
Red Deer Bob Mills Conservative
Vegreville--Wainwright new district
Westlock--St. Paul new district
Wetaskiwin Dale Johnston Conservative
Wild Rose Myron Thompson Conservative
Yellowhead Bob Merrifield Conservative
British Columbia (Interior) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Cariboo--Prince George Philip Mayfield Conservative
Kamloops--Thompson Betty Hinton Conservative
Kelowna Werner Schmidt Conservative
Kootenay--Columbia Jim Abbott Conservative
North Okanagan--Shuswap Darrel Stinson Conservative
Okanagan--Coquihalla Stockwell Day Conservative
Prince George--Peace River Jay Hill Conservative
Skeena--Bulkley Valley Andy Burton Conservative
Southern Interior Jim Gouk Conservative
British Columbia (Lower Mainland) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Abbotsford Chuck Strahl Conservative
Burnaby--Douglas Svend Robinson NDP
Burnaby--New Westminster new district
Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon new district
Delta--Richmond East John M. Cummins Conservative
Dewdney--Alouette Grant McNally Conservative
Fleetwood--Port Kells new district
Langley Randy White Conservative
Newton--North Delta new district
New Westminster--Coquitlam new district
North Vancouver Ted White Conservative
Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam James Moore Conservative
Richmond Joe Peschisolido Liberal Raymond Chan will challenge for nom.
South Surrey--White Rock--Cloverdale Val Meredith Conservative
Surrey North Chuck Cadman Conservative
Vancouver Centre Hedy Fry Liberal
Vancouver East Libby Davies NDP
Vancouver Kingsway Sophia Leung Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh may challenge for nom.
Vancouver Quadra Stephen Owen Liberal
Vancouver South Herb Dhaliwal Liberal will not run again
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast John Reynolds Conservative
British Columbia (Vancouver Island) Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca Keith Martin Independent Martin will seek Lib. nom.
Nanaimo--Alberni James Lunney Conservative
Nanaimo--Cowichan Reed Elley Conservative will not run again
Saanich--Gulf Islands Gary Lunn Conservative
Vancouver Island North John Duncan Conservative
Victoria David Anderson Liberal
Nunavut Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Nunavut Nancy Karetak-Lindell Liberal
Northwest Territories Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Western Arctic Ethel Blondin-Andrew Liberal
Yukon Elected Party Incumbent Party Notes
Yukon Larry Bagnell Liberal


References

Retrieved from "http://www.wikinfo.org/index.php/Canadian_federal_election,_2004"